WHAT’S Inflation and Deflation and a Speculation Concerning the Bitcoin Future

Recently I started buying bitcoins and I’ve heard a lot of discusses inflation and deflation but not many people actually know and consider what inflation and deflation are. But let’s start with inflation.

We always needed ways to trade value and probably the most practical way to do it would be to link it with money. During the past it worked quite well because the money that was issued was associated with gold. So every central bank had to have enough gold to pay back all of the money it issued. However, in past times century this changed and gold is not what is giving value to money but promises. As you can guess it’s very easy to abuse to such power and certainly the major central banks are not renouncing to do so. For this reason they are printing money, so in other words they’re “creating wealth” out of nothing without really having it. This process not only exposes us to risks of economic collapse nonetheless it results also with the de-valuation of money. Therefore, because money will probably be worth less, whoever is selling something has to raise the price of goods to reflect their real value, this is called inflation. But what’s behind the amount of money printing? Why are central banks doing this? Well the answer they might offer you is that by de-valuing their currency they are helping the exports.

In fairness, inside our global economy that is true. However, that is not the only real reason. By issuing fresh money we are able to afford to cover back the debts we’d, put simply we make new debts to cover the old ones. But that is not only it, by de-valuing our currencies we have been de-facto de-valuing our debts. That’s why our countries love inflation. In inflationary environments it’s simpler to grow because debts are cheap. But what are the consequences of most this? It’s hard to store wealth. If you keep the money (you worked hard to obtain) in your bank account you are actually losing wealth because your cash is de-valuing pretty quickly.

Because each central bank comes with an inflation target at around 2% we are able to well say that keeping money costs all of us at least 2% per year. This discourages savers and spur consumes. This is one way our economies are working, based on inflation and debts.

What about deflation? Well this is exactly the opposite of inflation in fact it is the biggest nightmare for our central banks, let’s understand why. Basically, we’ve deflation when overall the costs of goods fall. This would be caused by an increase of value of money. To begin with, it could hurt spending as consumers will be incentivised to save money because their value increase overtime. On the other hand merchants will undoubtedly be under constant pressure. They’ll have to sell their goods quick otherwise they will lose money as the price they will charge for their services will drop over time. But when there is something we learned in these years is that central banks and governments usually do not care much about consumers or merchants, what they care the most is DEBT!!. In a deflationary environment debt can be a real burden as it will only get bigger as time passes. Because our economies are based on debt you can imagine what will be the consequences of deflation.

So to conclude, inflation is growth friendly but is based on debt. Therefore the future generations will pay our debts. Deflation alternatively makes growth harder nonetheless it implies that future generations won’t have much debt to cover (in such context it would be possible to afford slow growth).

OK so how all this fits with bitcoins?

Well, bitcoins are designed to be an alternative for the money also to be both a store of value and a mean for trading goods. They’re limited in number and we will never have more than 21 million bitcoins around. Therefore they’re designed to be deflationary. We now have all seen what the results of deflation are. However, in a bitcoin-based future it could still be possible for businesses to thrive. Bitcoin Era Site to go will be to switch from a debt-based economy to a share-based economy. Actually, because contracting debts in bitcoins would be very expensive business can still obtain the capital they want by issuing shares of these company. This could be a fascinating alternative as it will offer many investment opportunities and the wealth generated will undoubtedly be distributed more evenly among people. However, simply for clarity, I have to say that area of the costs of borrowing capital will be reduced under bitcoins as the fees will be extremely low and there won’t be intermediaries between transactions (banks rip people off, both borrowers and lenders). This might buffer a few of the negative sides of deflation. Nevertheless, bitcoins will face many problems unfortunately, as governments still need fiat money to cover back the huge debts that we inherited from the past generations.